Three two-week blizzards in Northern California in the last 10 years have brought San Francisco to a standstill. But there may be a silver lining to that: cheaper flights.
The storms have created severe flooding. The recent rains have poured down nearly 300 inches of rain in Sacramento, and they have overflowed major highways, killing at least three people and bringing transportation to a near standstill. Crews are working around the clock to clear the waters.
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This deluge could be just what airlines and air travelers need in order to recover lost profits from those other two devastating storms: the 1997 Loma Prieta earthquake, which partially collapsed the Bay Bridge, and this February’s catastrophic Mudslide. Travel between Northern California and other parts of the United States has already been affected, and could ultimately result in a drop in bookings from California to other parts of the world. Airline profits took a hit during the 1997 earthquake when thousands of travelers backed up at airports and domestic travelers found it difficult to get to their destinations. That year, major airlines pocketed just $1.7 billion, compared to $3.3 billion in 1997.
“We’re concerned about the economic impact the storms could have on the region and the impacts on air travel to and from San Francisco,” said Lisa Gritzner, a spokeswoman for San Francisco International Airport. “Those storms are not just impacting people in the Bay Area, but they are impacting flight movements across the Bay Area.”
The weather has already had an impact. Airline industry analytics firm IdeaWorks has predicted that flights between San Francisco and Phoenix may be down as much as 30 percent to 50 percent this week. But this storm has provided an unexpected benefit for budget airlines: cheaper airfare.
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Even after taking the storms into account, Alaska Airlines has a more than 15 percent increase in bookings between San Francisco and Los Angeles this week compared to a week ago, according to data company IdeaWorks. However, Spirit Airlines has not benefited, with its daily bookings between San Francisco and Los Angeles declining around 20 percent, according to the company. Most airlines have not yet reported travel-booking trends for the duration of the storm, but experts say booking numbers should start to recover soon.
However, there is another, more troubling impact of the storms. Travelers stranded in San Francisco due to blocked roads have turned to trains. This has added to the cost of transportation, as well as creating some very long waits during the morning commute. “The ground transit for ground transit is the most capital intensive part of any public project,” said Mike Rosch, chief operating officer of the Contra Costa Transportation Authority. “You can’t get anywhere quickly. You have to play cat and mouse.”
The transportation authority has a long-term forecast plan that includes improvements to regional transit and highway infrastructure, but it will also have to weigh the cost of those improvements against the flight disruption during the storms.
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For now, though, there are ways that travelers can minimize the chaos. They should seek their own way to get to San Francisco and avoid the major transportation hubs, which can sometimes be plagued by traffic, delays and closures. And the plane you fly on can be one of the biggest headaches. Airport delays in San Francisco have caused more than 1.4 million missed flights and are the most difficult airport to get through, according to the airline and travel data analysis firm IdeaWorks. And once in the air, it can be incredibly frustrating waiting on hold.
Remember this photo from December 2015?: